Lucas Carrasquilla

I'm Lucas, a mathematics and economics undergraduate student in Bogotá, Colombia. I do quantitative research on political, economic and social behaviour.

I work with probabilistic and Bayesian modelling, machine learning and network analysis. I have several years of professional experience, first as a data analyst and then a researcher, in the private sector and in academia. I currently work at Merci, a collective litigation firm in Bogotá, and publish electoral, sports and technology analysis as Gandour Analítica.

I have taught undergraduate mathematics and computer science as a teaching assistant, and I am writing an applied linear algebra textbook with Professor Rafael Méndez. I enjoy teaching and doing research, and plan to pursue a PhD within the next few years.

Publications

All research ↗
Pass diagram on a green pitch showing the passer, the receiver, two defenders, the pass distance and the distance to goal.

Probability and football. Published in 2026.

Decision safety in football passing

A reproducible metric from probabilistic option sets

With José Alejandro Guerrero-Vargas and Pedro Wightman

How safe was a pass relative to the other options available? Reconstructing the passer’s alternatives separates the situation from the player.

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, 2026

53,406 passes from the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

Working papers

Volume or composition? Logistics channels and long-run sustainable development in Latin America: Evidence from pooled mean group estimation

With Alexander Garrido, Alfredo Roa-Henriquez and Natalia Parrado-León. Under review.

Textbook in Spanish. Manuscript complete.

Álgebra lineal para la vida

An applied linear algebra textbook for introductory courses, written in Spanish, with Rafael Méndez.

More on the book ↗
  1. Antes de empezar
  2. Espacios vectoriales
  3. Ortogonalidad
  4. Valores propios y sistemas dinámicos
  5. Descomposición en valores singulares

Analysis for a wider audience

All published work ↗